Hand Analysis: Parker Talbot Breaks Down a Final Table River Bluff

Hand Analysis: Parker Talbot Breaks Down a Final Table River Bluff
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  • Parker @tonkaaaap Talbot analyses an attempted river bluff in a final table hand on @888poker.

  • An interesting postflop spot for Parker Talbot in the $10K Sunday Deepstack Monsoon[/B] on @888poker.

I have a video to share with you today — highlights from a recent final table, the $55 buy-in $10,0000 Sunday Deepstack Monsoon on 888poker.

If you watch below you'll hear me say after one of the hands "we'll mark that one to review." It was a pretty cool hand. Of course, I say "cool" but it had kind of an awkward ending for me.

The hand starts around the 8:30 mark and comes when we were three-handed and I was the chip leader. I raised the button with {A-Hearts}{J-Diamonds} and saw a really tiny three-bet from the big blind.

This guy was playing kind of weak — not super-terrible, but not great. I decided just to call the small three-bet, although looking back at it now and knowing the result of the hand, I'd have preferred to four-bet push for the 40-plus BB effective stacks, especially considering the ICM pressure shoving would cause since the player not in the hand was much shorter than my opponent.

It would have been a great spot to apply pressure, because even if he were to call I probably would have had equity, and even if I he called and I lose, I still would have had plenty of chips going forward.

But I just called the three-bet, and the flop came {4-Hearts}{K-Diamonds}{8-Hearts} — reasonable for me (backdoor flush and straight draws), and pretty good for him. He continued for about a third of the pot and I called, then the turn brought the {Q-Diamonds}.

Hand Analysis: Parker Talbot Breaks Down a Final Table River Bluff 101
Parker "tonkaaaap" Talbot

My opponent bet again, this time a little less than half the pot. I wouldn't hate to see a fold here by me, although I decided to float and call the second barrel. I was blocking both flush draws and just about all the combo draws, but it was a pretty bad hand to be calling with. I only had two clean outs to the nuts, and I would be guessing if an ace rolled off on the river.

But I called again, so that's a couple of mistakes in the hand so far — that's all right, stuff happens when you party!

The river was the {9-Clubs}, which means I end with ace-high. There was close to 500,000 in the middle, and with almost 400,000 behind my opponent checked.

I think it's a really weird check from him. He's kind of polarized. He shouldn't really have a ton of good hands anymore. He should just have like {K-}{J-}, {K-}{10-}, {A-}{K-}, {A-}{A-}. If he has two pair he should have {K-}{Q-}, {K-}{9-}-suited, {Q-}{8-}-suited... maybe {9-Diamonds}{8-Diamonds} if he chose to double-barrel that.

But a lot of these hands just want to shove, anyway. Maybe not the weaker two-pair hands, but most of them. I don't think it's insane to check-call some of them, but I would expect most people to be shoving them, or betting at the very least.

Meanwhile I have no showdown value and block both flush draws. It's not great to be bluffing with missed flush draws, but ultimately that's what I decided to do. I'm honestly not sure about this situation, but after calling the turn I'm definitely repping a strong range (and I do block the nuts), and I don't expect him to have anything better than one pair or maybe a few weak two-pair hands.

Putting all that together with the ICM pressure shoving would cause, I did shove — and he called pretty quickly with {K-Spades}{4-Diamonds}.

Obviously seeing this, I know that if he's three-betting with king-four offsuit — and doing so with bad sizing, too — I should be shoving preflop and just printing chips. But as played, I think I need to bluff the river (or perhaps just fold the turn).

Looking at it from his perspective, I feel like if you three-bet with king-four and then double-barrel it, you're going to want to bet the river a lot. I shouldn't have {J-}{10-} that often except maybe {J-Hearts}{10-Hearts} or {J-Diamonds}{10-Diamonds}, and he blocks my good two-pair hands like {K-}{Q-} and {K-}{8-}. So I'm going to want to call him a lot with one-pair hands, which means he ought to bet the river.

There are some other fun hands, too, from this final table — ones that went better for me (and less awkwardly). Take a look below:

Online poker pro and 888poker Ambassador Parker "tonkaaaap" Talbot of Toronto is currently one of the game’s most popular and entertaining Twitch streamers. He can be found streaming several times a week on his Team NeverLucky channel. In addition to playing online, Talbot has collected numerous live tournament scores over recent years, highlighted by a €160,080 cash and final table in a EPT Barcelona High Roller.

What do you think?

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