We Take a Look at the Polk vs. Negreanu Betting Odds
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With Daniel Negreanu confirming that his heads-up match against Doug Polk will commence this week on November 4th, we take a look at the betting markets available on PokerShares to see if any would be worth wagering on.
The site currently has 14 separate markets relating to the match, and here PokerNews runs through some of the more interesting ones.
First set up in 2017, PokerShares has given players the opportunity to bet on all manner of markets, both inside the world of poker and out.
From the Aussie Millions and the Galfond Challenge to the US Election and how many cases of coronavirus there will be in the US (although the latter was ultimately pulled after ten hours due to "negative feedback on social media and reconsideration".)
PokerShares founder Mike "Timex" McDonald said that they wanted to make the challenge as engaging as possible for viewers, therefore offering more than just the normal bets on how the market plays out.
Therefore players are able to place bets on anything from "Will Doug return to professional poker?" to "Will there be any slowrolling?"
The Main Markets
McDonald says that PokerShares opened the markets "very early" within only a few minutes of the pair challenging each other to the match.
"The odds started out as even," said McDonald. "I believe 1.93 on each player as we were only going by details on Twitter and didn't even know the format of the match."
However, at time of publication (November 2nd), Doug Polk has moved ahead as a strong favourite to win the match according to the odds:
Doug Polk vs Daniel Negreanu
There are several markets relating to the first session, scheduled to take place live on PokerGO on November 4th. These include whether a player will slowroll during Session 1 (No +105, Yes -128), the size of the biggest pot (Over $100k +105, Under $100k -128) and who will get stacked first (Polk +100, Negreanu -116).
Other markets relate to the potential fallout from the match including:
- Will Doug Polk return to being a pro player after this challenge? (Yes +660, No -1000)
- Will Daniel Negreanu cease to be a poker player because of this challenge? (Yes +1400, No -5000)
- What date will the challenge conclude? (February 1st 2021 or later +105, January 31st 2021 or earlier -128)
Odds correct at time of publication - 2nd November 2020
Timex Tells All
McDonald told PokerNews that he thinks the match has the potential to be "the most exciting grudge match poker has ever seen."
"What makes the challenge especially exciting, is that Daniel decided he wanted to beat Doug at his own game. Originally we expected them to each pick their best game and rotate what they play.
"...the most exciting grudge match poker has ever seen"
"On one hand, you've got Doug, once the clear number one Heads-Up No Limit (HUNL) player in the world, but he's four years removed from competitive play.
"On the other hand, you've got Daniel. Not a heads-up specialist but the most famous and among the most successful all-around poker players of all time."
McDonald says that there has been an interesting dynamic when it comes to those betting on either Negreanu or Polk.
"Generally the guys betting on Doug have never played live, and the guys betting on Daniel have never played online! It's an interesting dynamic where I think online players tend to estimate Daniel, and live players tend to underestimate Doug."
However, he went on to say that PokerShares has seen "shockingly little" volume from any of the players who have substantial experience playing with both.