What does durrrr's Winrate have to be in the Million Dollar Challenge?
The Thomas 'durrrr' Dwan Million Dollar Challenge has made it into our news reports every day this week, so no reason for Friday to be any different. We have a maths whizz in the Pokernews office called Sam Glasson who has kindly crunched some numbers for us and worked out what Dwan's winrate has to be in order to make his challenge profitable in his heads up challenges with Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonius and David Benyamine.
Just to remind you, over 50,000 hands of $200/$400, if durrrr is in profit he gets $500,000 and if he loses he pays $1.5 million. In effect durrr is offering 3-1 odds which normally would require him to win 75% of the time to break even. BUT, the winner of this challenge also gets to keep the profits from the cash tables (Which have to be at least $1 but will likely be hundred of thousands, maybe millions) which means durrrr has to win less than 75% of the time to break even.
Sam has made an assumption that the standard deviation will be approximately 80ptbb/100 hands (poker tracker big bets per 100 hands) which is $64k per 100 hands for 200-400blinds. Through the central-limit theorem we can also assume that the win/loss at the end of the match is normally distributed.
Calculating confidence limits, we can expect the players could experience swings of up to $3 million over 50,000 hands if it's an even game, just under 5% of the time one player will finish more than $3 million down, assuming the play continues to the end of 50,000 hands. During play, one player could more easily be more than $3 million down at some point.
Whoever has the edge in heads up play is likely to have a very small edge indeed against this opposition, so let's assume first Dwan has a win rate of 0.5ptbb/100, he can expect to win $200,000 on average. But due to the considerable variance in big bet poker (Especially heads up, at these stakes, against world class players) there is a 44% chance he will be down at the end of the match.
Therefore Sam has produced a spreadsheet below that calculates the outcomes of various win rates for Dwan. In short, we have estimated that he needs an average win rate of 0.805ptbb/100hands for this to be a break even bet for him. Thank you very kindly to Sam Glasson for this excellent research and I am now off for a very long lie down after trying to take in all that information.
ElkY does it again at the PCA
The Bertrand Grospellier hot streak continues into 2009, as he has just took down a massive tournament in the place where he made his mark on live poker. Exactly a year after winning the Pokerstars.net Caribbean Adventure Main Event, he has just won the $25,000 High Rollers Event at the same festival. His $433,500 first prize means that he has captured two major titles and $2.4 million in the last 12 months in the Bahamas.
1: Bertrand "ElkY" Grospellier $433,500
2: Will Molson $228,000
3: Scott Seiver $137,000
4: Liya Gerasimova $91,300
5: Humberto Brenes $70,800
6: Eli Elezra $68,500
7: Daniel Alaei $57,000
8: Nick Schulman $45,700
Elsewhere in the Bahamas, the PCA main event is down to 30 players with Kevin 'Belowabove' Saul holding the chip lead. We have a lone Brit left in the field, but thankfully for us its EPT champion Vicky Coren, who is playing catch up with one of the shortest stacks going into day 4.
PKR Launches Software Upgrade
Virtual reality poker room PKR have unveiled 'version 1.7' of their poker software client. One of the fastest growing poker rooms in the world, PKR have made about 50 changes to their client, including new playing environments (Including Egyptian-themed poker room and an underground wine cellar poker room.), new dramatic tournament celebration graphics and perhaps most important the addition of rebuy tournaments to the schedule. There have also been major improvements to loading times, new payment options (paysafecard and ClickandBuy) and now a Russian language interface.
CEO Leon Walters, said, "This is our biggest update yet and our development team are really proud and excited about what we've been able to accomplish – we think the improvements and enhancements to the game are going to be a massive hit".
Titan Poker Launch Club Titan
The top skin on the iPoker network, Titan Poker have launched a fantastic new VIP loyalty scheme for 2009 called Club Titan. The more you play, the more it pays, as you can use your Titan points for cash bonuses as well as in the exclusive Titan Store (Coming soon).
Not only can you currently redeem your player points for entry into Titan Poker tournaments like the weekly $250,000 guaranteed you can also exchange them for cold hard cash. 2000 points will get you $10 into your bankroll, 80,000 will get you $800, 320,000 will get you $4000 and if you ever find yourself accumulating 7 million points you will be in line for an amazing $120,000. There are cash bonuses to suit all levels (Not to mention an exclusive free $50 and $500 bonus when you sign up with Pokernews) so check out Titan Poker and start earning points.